The Effect of Climate Change on Apple Blossoming Date in the East of Gansu Province

来源 :第二届中亚气象科技国际研讨会(The 2nd International Workshop of Meteorologi | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:anlanyuan
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  This article mainly analyzed the effect of climate chang on the apple blossoming date.Apple blossing date was mainly effected of the Light,heat,water and other weather conditions during November 1 to April 10 in the next year.Data about apple florescence were taken from Xifeng agricultural meteorological station which was located at Dongzhi Loess Plateau,Qingyang City,Gansu Province.Observed variety was Red Fuji Apple.Meteorological data were taken from Xifeng Basic Climate Observation Station.The years were all 22 years(from 1994 to 2015).The result showed,1)There was a significant negative correlation between the date of apple florescence and the averange temperature from late February to early April.When the averange temperature was more higher,the apple blossomed more earlier.2)With the heat condition increased year by year,the blossoming date showed an advanced trend.3)When the averange temperature from March to early April was higher than the minimum temperature for growth of apple trees,apple blossoming date was more than 20 days behind the first date of 5℃ temperature,and was close to the first date of 10℃ temperature.4)The relation between ten days or monthly precipitation and apple blossoming date just had very little correlation.Then precipitation was not the factor that restricted blossoming date of apple.5)There was a strong negative correlation between apple blossoming date and sunshine duration in early January and March.Especially in March,the sunshine duration had passed the α0.05 significance test,it means in March,when sunshine duration had increased,apple blossoming date would advance.6)Used the improved accumulated temperature model to forecast apple blossoming date from 1994 to 2015,there were 81.8%year forecast date been close to the actual date.Then forecasted the apple blossoming date in 2016 was April 17th,while the actual date was April 18th.7)When forecasted apple blossom date by linear correlation method,there was only one large error in 1997,while the difference between the forecast of the remaining 21 years and actual date was smaller,there were 95.5%year forecast date been close to the actual date.By using linear correlation method,forecasted the apple blossoming date in 2016 was April 16th.8)There was a great help to do the prevention about frost and strong cooling by forecasting apple blossoming date.The linear correlation method for forecasting of apple blossoming date in the East of Gansu Province was better.This article mainly discussed the effect of meteorological factors on apple blossoming date,however,apple blossoming date also was affected by management and tree-age,the effect of these factors needs to be further explored.
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