论文部分内容阅读
本文首先对经典的“托宾Q”理论进行修正,将资产的基础价值与投机价值进行分离,继而将含有资产基础价值的前瞻性利率规则引入DSGE分析框架,并对“名义利率调整→资产价值修复→实体经济复苏”这一问题展开必要探讨。研究结果表明,名义利率调整能够有效促进资产价值修复,进而拉动实体经济复苏。而近期我国资本市场活跃,但实体经济复苏缓慢的根本原因则在于实体经济周期与金融周期的错配;此外,我们仍不应忽视资产价格巨幅波动给金融体系稳定性带来的不利影响,货币当局应高度重视事前的政策疏导,以防投资者对中央银行的政策调整进行过度解读。
This paper first revolves the classical “Tobin’s Q” theory, separates the basic value of assets from the speculative value, and then introduces the forward-looking interest rate rules containing the basic value of assets into the DSGE analysis framework, and adjusts the nominal interest rate → Asset Value Recovery → Real Economic Recovery "This issue should be explored. The results show that the nominal interest rate adjustment can effectively promote the restoration of asset value, thus stimulating the real economy recovery. However, the fundamental reason for the sluggish recovery of the real economy lies in the mismatch between the real economic cycle and the financial cycle. In addition, we should not ignore the adverse impact of the huge fluctuations in asset prices on the stability of the financial system. Monetary authorities should attach great importance to pre-emptive policy guidance to prevent investors from over-interpreting central bank policy adjustments.