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本文通过选取18个行业的面板数据,从行业视角、生产效率视角和市场视角三个方面对新疆制造业出口和发展潜力的影响因素结合两步法系统广义距估计进行了实证研究。首先,新疆制造业资本投入推动了出口发展和发展潜力提升,但具有短周期性的特点。其次,对外开放度和潜在竞争力是新疆制造业出口和发展潜力提升的有效途径,但是对外开放度的提高推动了新疆制造业出口的水平式动态发展,潜在竞争力没能有效促进新疆制造业出口的垂直式动态发展。再次,新疆制造业外部市场对内部市场具有显著但不强的竞争替代性,开拓外部市场应以内部市场为基础和支撑。最后,基于本文的研究结论提出了相应的政策建议。
In this paper, by selecting panel data from 18 industries, this paper conducts an empirical research on the factors that affect the export and development potential of manufacturing industry in Xinjiang from three aspects: industry perspective, production efficiency perspective and market perspective combined with two-step system generalized distance estimation. First, investment in manufacturing capital in Xinjiang has promoted the development of exports and the potential for growth but has the characteristics of short-cycle. Second, the degree of opening up to the outside world and potential competitiveness are the effective ways to enhance the export and development potential of manufacturing in Xinjiang. However, the improvement of the degree of opening to the outside world has promoted the horizontal dynamic development of Xinjiang’s manufacturing exports. The potential competitiveness has not effectively promoted the manufacturing industry in Xinjiang The vertical development of exports. Third, the manufacturing external market in Xinjiang has obvious but not strong alternative to competition in the internal market. Opening up the external market should be based on and supported by the internal market. Finally, based on the conclusions of this paper, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.