HFP2季节预报中的长期线性趋势(英文)

被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:zr_ran
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
The climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-year multi-model ensemble(MME)forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project(HFP2).It is found that the warming trend of the seasonal forecast in MAM(March-May)over the Eurasian continent is in a good agreement with that in the observations.However,the seasonal forecast failed to reproduce the observed pronounced SAT trend in DJF(December-February).The possible reasons responsible for the different behaviors of the HFP2 models in MAM and DJF are investigated.Results show that the initial conditions used for the HFP2 forecast system in MAM has a warming trend over the Eurasian continent,which may come from high-frequency weather systems,whereas the initial conditions for the DJF seasonal forecast do not have such a trend.This trend in the initial condition contributes to the trend of the seasonal forecast in the first month.On the other hand,an examination of the lower boundary SST anomaly forcing shows that the SST trend in MAM has a negative SST anomaly along the central equatorial Pacific which is favorable for a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation atmospheric response and a warming over the Eurasian continent.The long-term SST trend used for the seasonal forecast in DJF,however,has a negative trend in the tropical eastern Pacific which is associated with a Pacific-North American pattern-like atmospheric response that has little contribution to a warming in the Eurasian continent.
其他文献
目的:建立逐痰丸中大黄酸、大黄素、大黄酚、大黄素甲醚的高效液相含量测定方法。方法:采用XSelectCSHC18色谱柱(4.6mm×250mm,5μm),流动相为甲醇-1mL/L磷酸溶液(83∶17
随着信息技术的飞速发展,VR技术也有着广泛的应用前景。高校通过运用VR技术来构建不同专业的虚拟实验实训室,有助于培养学生的实践技能。本文重点研究VR技术的概述、高校实训
作为丝绸之路经济带重要节点和西部文化产业大省,陕西是连接中国东、中部地区和西北、西南的交通枢纽,具有承东启西的区位优势。西部影视全面发展,深化其影视文化产业多维模
儿童咳嗽变异性哮喘,又称过敏性咳嗽,是目前儿科临床上最为常见的慢性咳嗽疾病之一,西医治疗该病的方法有限、副反应评估不足,更重要的是临床疗效不确切,往往存在反复发作,然
智能信息技术是我们国家最近几年以来快速兴起的,它通过与计算机、通信、电子以及控制等各项技术相结合从而完成对信息进行采集以及处置,并且伴随网络技术的迅猛发展,为智能
在经济发展的推动下,养殖业的发展水平得到一定程度的提高,以养猪业为典型代表,其规模化、集约化的趋势愈加明显,此外,为保证养殖业向良好趋势发展,养殖人员不但要加强养猪场
实施人才优先发展战略是尊重知识、尊重人才的现实表现,是实现中国梦的必由之路。通过对人才优先发展战略的内涵、大庆市落实人才优先发展战略的必要性进行分析,提出大庆市落
在项目投标阶段,EPC企业就业主ITB文件中的技术要求向供应商发出项目预询价,有助于EPC企业掌握项目真实采购成本,从而避免因对项目采购成本估计不足而导致中标后产生亏损。以
借助流变学手段研究了三山嵛精的流变改性能力。通过表观黏度随剪切速率变化的流动曲线、触变性以及黏弹性等测试,考察了三山嵛精对油凝胶体系流变特性的影响,建立了油凝胶体
对合肥动漫产业发展现状进行了分析,探讨了存在的问题,从四个方面提出了促进合肥动漫产业发展的对策。