【摘 要】
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Around the world,financial risk pre-warning is feasible and imperative.This paper is based on the principle of selection indicator system,and designs a stro
【机 构】
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StatisticBureauofJiangxiFinanceDepartment,CentralSouthUniversity
论文部分内容阅读
Around the world,financial risk pre-warning is feasible and imperative.This paper is based on the principle of selection indicator system,and designs a strong financial risk pre-warning system,which includes six primary indicators,18 secondary indicators.We divide the grade of financial risk pre-warning on the foundation of every indicator pre-warning boundaries.They are T1 level (safe),T2 level (basic security),T3 level (alert),and T4 level (danger).We collect every indicator data of 1992-2008 in China,and normalize them.Then we analysis factors,and set up a financial risk pre-warning model that based on the BP artificial neural network model.We train,test and forecast model with indicators data of 1992-2008 in China in Markway statistical analysis software.When training every factor in BP,we find that predicted state and actual state are basically the same.The deviation of the actual state of individual year has no influence on training conclusion.The model can be used in the actual situation of the warning.
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