【摘 要】
：
本文以淮河上游王家坝流域为研究对象,对流域水文气象序列分别采用趋势和变异诊断技术进行统计分析.趋势和变异诊断结果发现,流域降水和径流呈现不显著下降趋势,检测到流域控制站点水文气象时间序列在1992年左右发生变异,结合DTVGM、SWAT和HBV三个水文模型定量分离了气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的平均贡献率分别为38.13％和61.87％;弹性系数方法定量分离结果分别为40.59％和59.41％;未
【机 构】
：
武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉,430072 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重
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本文以淮河上游王家坝流域为研究对象,对流域水文气象序列分别采用趋势和变异诊断技术进行统计分析.趋势和变异诊断结果发现,流域降水和径流呈现不显著下降趋势,检测到流域控制站点水文气象时间序列在1992年左右发生变异,结合DTVGM、SWAT和HBV三个水文模型定量分离了气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的平均贡献率分别为38.13％和61.87％;弹性系数方法定量分离结果分别为40.59％和59.41％;未来气候场景下,同时考虑降水和温度变化,10％降水增加和1℃温度升高将导致13.6％的平均径流增加.与先前的学者研究结果一致,径流变化与降水成正相关关系,与温度成负相关关系,对降水变化更加敏感.
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