【摘 要】
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Will the construal of outcomes affect people’s risky preferences? In the classical paradigm of risk decision research,choices are typically presented as outcomes with gain or loss values and probabili
【机 构】
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Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science,Institute of Psychology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,China;Unive
【出 处】
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第一届决策与脑研究国际研讨会(THE 1stINTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON DECISION MA
论文部分内容阅读
Will the construal of outcomes affect people’s risky preferences? In the classical paradigm of risk decision research,choices are typically presented as outcomes with gain or loss values and probabilities,i.e.,“probability of P% to win $Q”,in which the zero outcome is hidden,namely “probability of (1-p)% to win $0”.Previous researchers have found a hidden-zero effect in intertemporal choice,which states that explicitly referring to the hidden zero in each alternative would decrease participants willingness to choose impatient choices.Regarding the similarity of utility function and process between risky and intertemporal choice,we hypothesize that a hidden-zero effect exists in risk choice: presenting risky alternatives explicitly with the hidden zero may increase people’s willingness to choose risky choices.In Study 1,using a two-factor mixed design,we manipulated hidden-zero/explicit-zero outcome (between-subject factor) and large/small probability (within-subject factor).Participates were asked to choose between a pair of sure or risk options with approximate expected values.Results indicated that in small probability conditions,participants were more risk-seeking when they presented explicit-zero outcomes than they were when presenting hidden-zero ones.In terms of the effects of numeracy ability on people’s risky performance,we investigated the effect of numeracy ability on hidden-zero/explicit-zero in Study 2.The results showed that less numerate individuals are less inclined towards risk preference and more influenced by explicit zero outcomes,compared with highly numerate individuals.Our pioneering results demonstrated the existence of hidden-zero effect in risky choice.The research suggested that changing the construal of outcomes,even without changing their objective values,can have a powerful impact on individuals’ ability to consider the risky consequences of their decisions.
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