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随着电力市场的发展,市场规则不断修正。目前的市场发展已经确定未来将以合同电量的竞价为主,合同电量将占整个年度电力生产的绝大部分。因此,电力市场环境下水电企业的合同电量确定以及计划安排等问题将是未来水电企业十分需要解决的。本文从电力市场的规则入手,对水电生产中遇到的发电能力等要素进行数学统计处理,采用概率模型,建立基于风险情况下收益最大的数学模型,并且提出了求解这一高维优化问题的方法及计算步骤。
With the development of the electricity market, the market rules are constantly revised. The current market development has determined that the future will be based on the contract price of electricity auction, the contract electricity will account for most of the annual electricity production. Therefore, the hydropower enterprises in the electricity market under the contract to determine the amount of electricity and scheduling issues such as the future will be hydropower companies need to be resolved. Starting from the rules of the electricity market, this paper carries out mathematical statistics on the power generation capacity encountered in hydropower production and other factors. Using the probabilistic model, the mathematical model with the maximum return under risk is established and the solution to this high-dimensional optimization problem Methods and calculation steps.