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为了分析城市给水管网系统模型的不确定性,介绍了多种不确定性分析理论的应用与发展。从管网系统的复杂性入手,分析了管网系统不确定性产生的原因,从模型参数和模型结构两方面分析了管网系统模型的不确定性。介绍了GLUE、BaRE、MCMC和FOSM等不确定性分析方法的理论与进展,认为模型的不确定性分析是模型开发中必不可少的程序。
In order to analyze the uncertainty of urban water distribution system model, the application and development of many kinds of uncertainty analysis theories are introduced. Beginning with the complexity of the pipe network system, the causes of the pipe network system uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty of the pipe network system model is analyzed from the aspects of model parameters and model structure. The theory and progress of the methods of uncertainty analysis such as GLUE, BaRE, MCMC and FOSM are introduced. It is considered that the uncertainty analysis of the model is an indispensable program in the model development.