【摘 要】
：
The Qingjiang River, the second largest tributary of the Yangtze River in Hubei Province, has taken on the important tasks for power generation and flood co
【机 构】
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State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, 430072
【出 处】
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The Third International Symposium of IAHS-PUB-CHINA ：Predict
论文部分内容阅读
The Qingjiang River, the second largest tributary of the Yangtze River in Hubei Province, has taken on the important tasks for power generation and flood control in Hubei Province.The Qingjiang watershed has a subtropical monsoon climate and, as a result, dramatic diversity in its water resources.Recently, global wanning and climate change have seriously affected the Qingjiang watersheds integrated water resources management.In this paper, General circulation model (GCM) and the watershed hydrological models were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on future runoff of Qingjiang River basin.To couple the scale difference between GCM and watershed hydrological model, a statistical downscaling method based on the Smooth Support Vector Machine (SSVM) was used to downscale the GCMs large-scale output.With the downscaled precipitation and evaporation, the Xin-anjiang hydrological model and HBV model were applied to predict the future runoff of Qingjiang River under A2 and B2 scenario.The results will present the change trend of the future runoff of Qingjiang River under the impacts of climate change.
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