Geospatial Modeling of Current and Projected Risks of Soil Erosion in Central Asia

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Soil erosion is a major form of land degradation.This paper presents the results of a preliminary assessment on the risks of soil erosion within the five states of Central Asia namely Kazakhstan,the Kyrgyz Republic,Uzbekistan,Turkmenistan,and Tajikistan.Data used include the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer instruments (MODIS) surface reflectance and vegetation indices,digital elevation from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM),Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD),and the baseline climate data from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was implemented to produce an annual risk map of water erosion whereas a simple model that combines climate erosivity,vegetation cover,and soil erodibility was attempted to assess the risks of wind erosion.Results show that mountainous areas (in particular Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic) are under the highest risks of water erosion.Erosion by wind is by far the leading process of land degradation in Central Asia and the highest risks seem to occur during spring and summer period.Statistically downscaled precipitation and temperature data for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) 2020s-A2 Storyline from selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used to study the plausible near-future risks of erosion within the region.Results seem to suggest that both water and wind erosion processes could be exacerbated.The projected precipitation increases over the west wing of Tian Shan Mountains and the Pamir Plateau are likely to escalate water erosion risks within these areas,and the situation could be further aggravated by the projected temperature increases over these areas consequently leading to more frequent occurrences of mudslide and flooding.More worrying may be the situation on wind erosion as the climate erosivity is projected to rise over northern and western Kazakhstan,almost the entire landmass of Turkmenistan,and central Uzbekistan.Soil erosion is already a serious environmental problem at present and the adaptation of agricultural production systems to the changing climate should include strategies for soil conservation to mitigate land degradation by erosion.
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