An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years

来源 :第八届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:chenzj071
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
  An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America.A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Researchs (NCARs) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM).The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF.In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively.The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical dovwnscaling approach (TDD).The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied.In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation.In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States.
其他文献
The intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) of southern China spring rainfall (SCSR) are examined based on daily rain gauge rainfall data and NCEP/Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-2) products for the
会议
本文利用常规观测资料和西南区域模式(WRF_RUC)产品,对2012年8月17-18日四川盆地西部龙门山沿线出现的暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,结果表明:对流层中低层显著高能高湿,大气层结极不稳定,为中尺度对流系统的生成和发展提供了有利的热力不稳定条件;低层风速辐合、地形强迫抬升及边界层冷空气入侵,是造成对流发展的主要因素:垂直环流圈形成的正反馈作用是暴雨临近时低层东风加大和暴雨过程中形成强烈垂直上升运
本文基于贵州多年平均旬界限内积温,计算了旬内各温度界限内的出现天数,并分别统计了喜温和喜凉作物适宜温度范围内的天数和积温,划分出了贵州作物适宜生长期.结果表明,应用旬界限内积温除以相应温度界限中值,得到的日数能够反映旬内出现在各温度界限的日数;贵州各站喜凉作物的适宜生长期包括一个或两个时段,与传统稳定通过3℃下限的仅一个时段的气候生长期结果存在差异;提出的基于旬适宜积温和适宜日数的方法能够客观划分
According to changeability of cloud, cloud-type recognition was primarily based on single-class feature in previous papers which was restricted to a certain degree.A set of features describing the col
The severe rainfall events in the mid-sumnmer of July 2004 and the roles of cold air in the forma tion of heavy precipitation are investigated by using daily observational precipitation data of China
Surface energy-balance closure in a typical gully region of the Loess Plateau on the eastern edge of Qinghai Xizang Plateau were studied based on the turbulence and radiation data observed at the Semi
会议
利用2012年4月1日~2013年3月31日ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式降水预报资料,全国2419个台站逐6小时降水量观测、CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)卫星与全国3万余个自动站逐小时降水融合资料,基于列联表预报评分、泰勒图等统计方法,客观对比分析ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式对中国逐6h、12h、24h分段降水的预报能力
This study explores the microphysical responses to a cloud seeding operation in the Sanjiangyuan re gion.China.The cloud seeding was performed using a zigzag ight pattern, while the detection phase wa
应用宁夏气象台站1961-2010年逐候降水量序列资料,计算了春、夏、秋季3个季降水的集中期、集中度和干旱Z指数,运用趋势分析、相关分析、合成分析讨论了3季的集中期、集中度与旱涝程度的时空变化特征及其相互关系.结果表明:50a来宁夏春夏秋干旱等级均呈加剧趋势,秋季加剧更明显,3季中中部干旱带加剧最严重,南部山区次之,北部最小,春季集中期无明显变化趋势,但集中度有上升趋势,夏季集中期、集中度缓慢下降
July-June precipitation has been reconstructed back to A.D.1464 for the Baluntai region on the southern slope of the central Tien Shah Mountains.China, using the Picea schrenkiana tree-ring width.The
会议