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最近十年,金砖国家在世界经贸中的地位不断提高,经济增长普遍较快。但是自2011年以来,金砖国家经济增长进入了增速放缓、结构调整的新常态。在与中国对美国、日本、欧盟三大经济体经贸关系对比分析的基础上,我们测算了中国与金砖国家的贸易结合度、出口结构、显示性比较优势指数的斯皮尔曼等级相关系数等指标。研究结果表明,中国与金砖国家存在广泛的经贸合作基础:虽然巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非金砖四国间主要是贸易竞争关系,由于中国的加入,改变了金砖国家经贸关系竞争为主的格局。中国与印度主要是贸易竞争关系,但与巴西、俄罗斯、印度三国则是贸易互补关系占据主体地位。据此,本文认为,从长期来看,中国与金砖国家经贸合作前景广阔。
In the recent ten years, the status of BRICS countries in world economy and trade has been continuously improved, and their economic growth has been generally rapid. However, since 2011, the economic growth of BRICS countries has entered a new normal of slowdown and structural readjustment. Based on a comparative analysis of the economic and trade relations between China and the United States, Japan and the EU, we measured Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between China’s trade with the BRICS countries, the export structure, and the comparative comparative advantage index index. The results show that there is a broad base of economic and trade cooperation between China and the BRICS countries. Although the BRIC countries in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa are mainly trade and competition relations, China has changed the main trade and economy competition in the BRICS pattern. China and India are mainly trade and competition relations, but with Brazil, Russia and India, trade complementarity occupies the dominant position. Accordingly, this article believes that in the long run, the prospects for economic and trade cooperation between China and the BRICS countries are bright.