【摘 要】
：
Objective: To explore spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of tuberculosis, to find out ecological factorsthat having impact onreported incidence of tuberculosis and to make prediction of the rep
【机 构】
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School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China; Beijing Municipal Key La
【出 处】
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首都医科大学公共卫生学院第四届研究生学术论坛
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Objective: To explore spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of tuberculosis, to find out ecological factorsthat having impact onreported incidence of tuberculosis and to make prediction of the reported incidence.Methods: Six models based on Uncorrelated Heterogeneity Models were created and Correlated Heterogeneity Modelsusing Bayesian methodology under the condition of negative binomial distribution to work on TB in 353 cities between 2006 and 2010 in Mainland China by year data.With software WinBUGS 1.4.3, the optimum model was selected according to the DIC value.Also,association of TB risks and covariates were explored using ecology analysis technology.Results: DIC value of models based on correlationtheory were better than those based on uncorrelatedtheory, and model considering the spatio-temporal interactionperformed the best (DIC=14697.2), which means that there was an important link between tuberculosis disease and spatio-temporal interaction.The risk of the incidence of TB was affected by average temperature (coefficient: 0.0601, 95%CI:0.0501~0.0709), rainfall (coefficient: 0.0023, 955CI: 0.0013~0.0063),the average wind speed (coefficient: 0.104, 95%CI: 0.058~0.165).Conclusions: The spatio-temporal interactive model was the best (DIC=14697.2) and spatio-temporal interaction has an influence on reported incidence of tuberculosis.Mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall and mean annual wind speed has an influence on reported incidence.
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