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目前经济波动的福利成本研究均建立在基于消费的效用函数基础上,而引入收入波动后我们发现:收入波动导致的福利成本才是更为重要的因素。本文定义的偏好具有损失规避的特点,在比较温和的参数设定下,考虑了收入波动后得到的福利成本指标λ在1.4%—13.4%之间,比此前各种技术方法得到的λ值提高了1—2个数量级。采用中国转型期以来的统计数据,消除短期波动的福利效果等同于将消费的长期增长率再提高约0.25个百分点,这表明如能进一步稳定经济的运行,仍会带来可观的福利提升。
At present, the research on the welfare cost of economic fluctuation is based on the utility function based on consumption. After introducing the fluctuation of income, we find that the welfare cost caused by the fluctuation of income is the more important factor. The preference defined in this paper has the characteristics of loss avoidance. Under the mild parameter setting, the welfare cost index λ from 1.4% -13.4% after considering the income fluctuation is higher than that obtained by various technical methods 1-2 orders of magnitude. Using the statistics from China’s transition period, the effect of eliminating short-term fluctuations is equivalent to increasing the long-term growth rate of consumption by about 0.25 percentage points. This shows that there will still be substantial welfare improvements if the economy is to be further stabilized.