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国外研究表明政治精英的更替以及任期内政策偏好的改变,可能会给政策带来较大的变动。在中国集中化的干部管理体制之下,作为地方政治精英的地方官员的更替变动是否会带来相应的政策变动呢?此外,一个地方的政策会随着地方官员任期的改变发生什么样的变动呢?为解答上述问题,本文选取1980—2011年28个省份的省委书记和省长为样本,从其更替、任期等维度系统地考察了省级地方官员对财政分配结构的影响,研究结果表明官员更替当年的科教文卫等公共服务支出的增长率和占总财政支出的比重显著高于其他年份,而在整个任期内公共服务支出增长率和占总财政支出的比重呈现U形分布的趋势;同时发现了省委书记和省长的年龄、学历与公共服务支出成正相关。
Foreign studies show that the change of political elites and changes in the preferences of the government during the tenure of office may bring about major changes to the policies. Under China’s centralized cadre management system, whether changes in the turnover of local officials as local political elites will result in corresponding changes in policies? In addition, what changes will a local policy take as the tenure of local officials changes? In order to answer the above questions, this article selects the provincial party secretaries and provincial governors from 28 provinces from 1980 to 2011 as samples, and systematically examines the impact of provincial officials on the fiscal allocation structure from the perspectives of replacement and tenure. The results Indicating that the official replacement of public service expenditures in the year of science and education, the growth rate and the proportion of total financial expenditure was significantly higher than the other years, and throughout the tenure of public service expenditure growth and the proportion of total financial expenditure U-shaped distribution Trend; At the same time found that the provincial party secretary and governor of the age, education and public service expenditure is a direct correlation.