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采用系统调查方法研究田间玉米粗缩病(MRDV)的自然发展动态和经济损失规律,其结果表明,MRDV在玉米生长季中的进展曲线遵循对数抛物线函数(y=a·e~bx+ex~2)规律,从而建立了中单2#和丹玉13#玉米上MRDV(病指数和发病率)的流行模型(α<0.05,估计病情符合率75—100％),同时认为此函数为生长后期表现“隐症”的一类植物病毒病发展动态的通用拟合模型。MRDV对玉米成穗率、穗粒数、穗粒和干粒重诸产量因子都显著影响,相关分析发现玉米损失率与拔节,抽雄和吐丝期的MRDV严重度密切相关(r≥0.89,α<0.05),因此建立了这些时期病指数和病株率与经济损失率间的线性关系模型,并用相应的模型估计了南充地区1988—1989年MRDV引起的玉米产量和经济损失。
The results showed that the trend of MRDV in maize growing season followed the logarithmic parabola function (y = a · e ~ bx + ex ~ 2) rule, the epidemiological model of MRDV (disease index and incidence) on Zhongdan 2 # and Danyu 13 # maize was established (α <0.05, the estimated disease compliance rate was 75-100%). Meanwhile, this function was considered as A General Fitting Model for the Development of a Class of Plant Viruses in Late Growth Stage. MRDV had a significant effect on yield per spike, number of grains per spike, number of grains per spike and dry weight of grain. Correlation analysis showed that the loss rate of maize was closely related to the severity of MRDV at jointing, tasseling and silking (r≥0.89, α <0.05). Therefore, a linear relationship model between disease index and plant strain rate and economic loss rate was set up and the corresponding model was used to estimate the yield and economic loss of maize caused by MRDV in Nanchong from 1988 to 1989.