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2010年8月天然橡胶市场走势强于预期,在库存回升缓慢的支撑下延续震荡上行格局。尽管国内房地产政策再次出现收紧的迹象,但是其它货币政策仍没有调控的动静,这给市场带来一定压力,但还不足以逆转反弹格局。国际原油价格下跌带来的拖累也不明显,再次显示目前天然橡胶市场维持多头氛围。由于天然橡胶供应短期内仍难呈现爆发式增长,预计供应紧俏的局面还将延续,并继续对市场形成支撑,因此预计9月沪胶市场仍将维持震荡偏强的格局,但在9月中面临宏观数据公布期,震荡可能会加剧。总体来看,主力合约移仓至1103合约后有冲击28000元高点的需求。
In August 2010, the market trend of natural rubber was stronger than expected, continuing the upward trend of shocks under the support of the slow recovery of stocks. Despite signs of tightening in domestic real estate policies, other monetary policies are still not regulated. This puts some pressure on the market but is not enough to reverse the rebound pattern. The drag brought by the drop of international crude oil is also not obvious, once again shows that the current natural rubber market to maintain long bullish atmosphere. As the natural rubber supply is still hard to show the explosive growth in the short term, it is expected that the tight supply situation will continue and continue to form a supportive market. Therefore, it is expected that in September the Hujiao market will maintain a strong concussion pattern. However, in mid-September Faced with the macro data release period, the shock may be exacerbated. Overall, the main contract shift positions to 1103 contracts impact the high demand of 28,000 yuan.