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目的分析武汉市2011—2016年手足口病疫情流行特征,并利用移动平均法的季节趋势模型对该病疫情趋势进行预测。方法采用描述性流行病学分析方法分析武汉市手足口病流行特征;应用基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型建立手足口病流行趋势预测模型,对2017年武汉市手足口病发病趋势进行预测。结果 2011—2016年武汉市累计报告手足口病病例数88 573例,年均发病率147.45/10万,年平均增长率15.07%。男女性别比1.61:1,主要集中在5岁以下幼托儿童及散居儿童;发病大高峰在4~7月,小高峰在11~12月。应用基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型预测武汉市2017年手足口病发病趋势显示报告发病数较2016年略有下降且4~7月为流行高峰期。结论通过对武汉市2011—2016年手足口病监测资料的分析,可确定武汉市2017年手足口病发病的预警线及行动线,为手足口病防控工作提供一定的理论依据。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Wuhan from 2011 to 2016 and forecast the trend of the outbreak by using the moving average method of seasonal trend model. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan. The seasonal trend model based on the moving average method was used to establish the trend forecast model of hand-foot-mouth disease to predict the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan in 2017. Results A total of 88 573 HFMD cases were reported in Wuhan from 2011 to 2016, with an average annual incidence of 147.45 / 100 000 and annual average growth rate of 15.07%. Male to female ratio of 1.61: 1, mainly in children under 5 years of age care and diaspora; onset peak in April to July, a small peak in 11 to December. The seasonal trend model based on the moving average method is applied to predict the incidence of HFMD in Wuhan in 2017. The incidence of HFMD in Wuhan shows a slight decrease from 2016 and the peak is from April to July. Conclusion The monitoring data of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan from 2011 to 2016 can determine the warning line and action line of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan in 2017 and provide some theoretical basis for the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease.