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本文讨论了大震前的自组织临界现象，认为在大地震发生前地壳处于自组织临界状态。不同规模的地震反映地壳中不同尺度裂隙的产生或扩展。设ｐ＿０，ｐ＿１，…，ｐ＿ｎ是不同尺度岩石块体中产生或扩展裂隙的概率，根据重整化群理论，数列｛ｐ＿０，ｐ＿１，…，ｐ＿ｎ｝有极限。其极限值可能是０或１。选定一个临界值ｐ￣＊，如果ｐ＿０＞Ｐ￣＊则Ｐｎ→１；反之，若ｐ＿０＜ｐ￣＊，则Ｐ＿ｎ→０。在地震平静期内，必有ｐ＿０＜ｐ￣＊，而在地震活跃期内，ｐ＿０＞ｐ￣＊。在本文中，作者根据地震资料研究了青藏高原北部地区的临界概率Ｐ￣＊值，得到大震前Ｐ＿０值大约为０．３－０．８，平静期ｐ＿０约为０．１－０．２，所以Ｐ￣＊值约为０．２－０．３．利用重整化群模型给出了Ｐ￣＊为０．２３２４，预报期限为３年。
This paper discusses the self-organized criticality before the earthquake and holds that the crust is in a self-organized critical state before the earthquake. Earthquakes of different sizes reflect the generation or expansion of fractures of different scales in the crust. Let p_0, p_1, ..., p_n be the probability of generating or propagating fractures in rock masses of different scales. According to renormalization group theory, there is a limit to the sequence {p_0, p_1, ..., p_n}. The limit value may be 0 or 1. Select a threshold p ~ *, if p_0> P ~ * Pn → 1; the other hand, if p_0
p ~ * . In this paper, based on the seismic data, the author studied the critical probability P ~ * value in the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The value of P_0 before the earthquake was about 0.3-0.8 and the p_0 during the quiet period was about 0.1-0.2 , So P ~ * value is about 0.2-0.3. Using renormalization group model, P¯ * is 0.2324 and forecast period is 3 years.