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针对有毒气体泄漏事故风险动态评估问题,基于元胞自动机(cellular automata,CA)理论,首先构建了有毒气体浓度动态预测模型,然后以动态预测模型为基础,进一步构建了有毒气体泄漏事故个人风险和社会风险动态评估模型,最后通过对氯气泄漏事故的仿真模拟验证了该模型的有效性.研究结果表明:该模型能够同时对有毒气体泄漏事故的影响范围以及影响范围内各个位置处的有毒气体浓度,个人风险,社会风险进行快速地实时地评估.通过模型计算得到的有毒气体泄漏事故个人风险和社会风险的动态评估结果可为应急疏散的开展以及应急救援资源的合理分配提供科学有效的依据.
Aiming at the dynamic assessment of the risk of toxic gas leakage accident, based on the theory of cellular automata (CA), a dynamic prediction model of toxic gas concentration was first established. Then based on the dynamic prediction model, the personal risk of toxic gas leakage was further established And the dynamic assessment model of social risk.At last, the effectiveness of this model is verified through the simulation of chlorine gas leakage.The results show that the model can simultaneously affect the toxic gas leakage accident range and the toxic gas Concentration, personal risk and social risk in a timely and real-time manner.The results of dynamic assessment of personal risk and social risk of toxic gas leakage accident calculated through the model can provide a scientific and effective basis for the development of emergency evacuation and the rational allocation of emergency rescue resources .