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2012年1-9月,中国累计出口稀土矿石、金属及化合物9967吨,不及本年度出口配额30966吨的33%。继包钢稀土、五矿集团两家最大的稀土企业宣布停止冶炼分离环节的生产后,江苏省宣布进入全省范围的停产状态,另外,中国铝业公司也宣布停产。进入11月,全国稀土产品主要品种氧化镨钕、氧化镝价格开始出现反弹行情,其他产品也呈现普涨行情。本文认为,考虑国内稀土生产的环保成本不断加大以及海外稀土矿开采的人力成本、环境成本较高,预计稀土价格向下调整空间已经不大,如果稀土价格回暖,上涨空间应该不超过60%。
From January to September 2012, China exported 9967 tons of rare earth ores, metals and compounds in total, less than 33% of the 30,666 tons of export quotas for the year. Following the Baotou Steel Rare Earth, Minmetals Group, the two largest rare earth enterprises announced the end of the smelting process of separation of production, Jiangsu Province announced the closure of the province into the state of the state, in addition, China Aluminum Corporation also announced the discontinuation. Into November, the main varieties of rare earth products, neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide prices began to rebound market, other products also showed broad market. This paper argues that taking into account the increasing cost of domestic environmental protection of rare earth production and labor costs of overseas rare earth mining, environmental costs are higher, the downward adjustment of rare earth prices is expected to have little room for rare earth prices, the upside should not exceed 60% .