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人类活动和气候变化对水资源的影响已为众多科学家关注。二者的影响谁起主导作用,贡献率究竟有多大,这是本文研究的重点。本文采用基于“功能驱动”原理的主观赋权法和基于“差异驱动”原理的客观赋权法,计算出了人类活动和气候变化对水资源影响的贡献率,最终采用综合集成赋权法计算了二者的权重系数。结果表明:①气候变化和人类活动对石羊河流域水资源的影响权重系数分别为52.63%和47.36%,这表明气候变化因子对水资源的影响要大于人类活动因子对水资源的影响;②气候变化对水资源的影响在流域内部存在差异,其主要表现在:中游地区的气候因子对水资源的贡献率最大,是区域内水资源对气候变化最真实的反映;上游地区由于积雪的消融和积累过程使得气候因子的贡献率较小;下游地区受降水效率和可供蒸发水量的限制贡献率也较小。
The impact of human activities and climate change on water resources has attracted the attention of many scientists. The influence of the two who play a leading role, how much contribution rate, this is the focus of this article. In this paper, the subjective weighting method based on the principle of “function-driven” and the objective weighting method based on the principle of “differential drive” are used to calculate the contribution rate of human activities and climate change to water resources. Finally, Weighting method calculates the weight coefficient of the two. The results showed that: (1) The weight coefficients of climate change and human activities on water resources in Shiyang River Basin were 52.63% and 47.36% respectively, which indicated that the impact of climate change factors on water resources was greater than the impact of human activities on water resources; The impacts of climate change on water resources are different within the basin. The main manifestations are as follows: the climatic factors in the middle reaches have the largest contribution to water resources, which is the most realistic reflection of climate change in the region; The contribution rate of climatic factors is smaller due to the process of ablation and accumulation, and the limited contribution rate of precipitation efficiency and available evaporating water in the downstream area is also small.