痢疾是《中华人民共和国传染病防治法》中规定的乙类传染病,是夏秋季常见的急性肠道传染病,其流行范围广、传播快、发病率高,危害人类健康[1]。研究痢疾的发病规律与影响因素对痢疾的疫情进行预测和分析可以为痢疾的预防控制、资源配置提供科学依据。痢疾发病数的时间序列中包含大量的信息,是建模和预测的主要依据。时间序列资料往往具有长期趋势、季节性、周期性、短期波动 Dysentery is a type B infectious disease stipulated in Law of the People’s Republic of China on Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases, which is a common acute infectious intestinal disease in summer and autumn. Its epidemic scope is wide spread, with high incidence and endangering human health. Research on the incidence of dysentery and its influencing factors The forecast and analysis of the epidemic of dysentery can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of dysentery and resource allocation. The time series of dysentery incidences contain a large amount of information and are the main basis for modeling and forecasting. Time series data tend to have long-term trends, seasonal, cyclical, short-term fluctuations