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社会保障财政支付能力是社会保障制度可持续发展的关键.依据辽宁省经济数据,运用社会保障适度水平理论,系统预测了辽宁省未来十年的社会保障财政支付能力.主要结论为:在高、中、低三种情境下,辽宁省社会保障财政支付能力分别处于较强、适中和较弱三种状态.但在低、中、高三种情景下,辽宁省的社会保障财政支出并未处于适度水平状态,辽宁省未来十年都存在一定的社会保障财政支出适度缺口,且呈现不断扩大趋势.因此,提高社会保障财政支出水平的要求必然增加了辽宁省未来社会保障财政支付能力的压力,这需要从社会保障财政供给和需求两方面着手加以应对.
Based on the economic data of Liaoning Province and applying the theory of appropriate level of social security, this paper systematically predicts the social security financial payment ability of Liaoning Province in the coming decade.The main conclusions are as follows: In the high, Middle and low three situations, Liaoning Province, the social security financial affordability respectively in a strong, moderate and weak three states.But in the low, medium and high three scenarios, Liaoning Province, social security expenditure is not moderate Level, Liaoning Province will have a modest gap in the social security expenditure over the next ten years, and will continue to expand. Therefore, the requirement of raising the level of social security expenditure will inevitably increase the pressure on Liaoning’s future social security financial payment ability, It is necessary to respond to both the financial supply and demand of social security.