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为解决星用核心部件的寿命预测问题,对星用活动部件、蓄电池等耗损型/退化型产品的寿命预测进行了研究。提出了一种面向工程的寿命预测方法及其应用策略,通过产品寿命要求分析、产品失效机理分析、性能退化数据采集与处理、性能退化建模、寿命分布建模及寿命预测等5个步骤,用性能退化数据实现对耗损型/退化型产品的寿命评价。以氢镍蓄电池为应用对象,选定循环周次为寿命表征,放电终压为退化特征量,剔除采集数据中的野点和活化效应,建立三阶段退化模型,用威布尔分布拟合获得了可靠寿命。方法和应用策略可用于工程实践。
In order to solve the life prediction problem of star core components, the life prediction of consumable / degeneration products such as moving parts and batteries is studied. A life expectancy prediction method based on engineering and its application strategy are proposed. Five steps of product life expectancy analysis, product failure mechanism analysis, performance degradation data collection and processing, performance degradation modeling, life distribution modeling and life prediction are proposed. Estimating the Life of Wear / Degraded Products with Performance Degradation Data. Taking nickel-hydrogen storage battery as the object of application, the cycle cycle was selected as the life-span characterization, the discharge final pressure was the degeneration feature amount, the wild-point and activation effects in the collected data were eliminated, and the three-stage degenerate model was established. life. Methods and application strategies can be used in engineering practice.