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通过对多年冻土区道路路基稳定性的分析和研究,从冻土类型、温度、厚度、地质地貌单元以及工程条件5个方面选取了12项对多年冻土区路基稳定影响较大的因素作为评价指标,建立了冻土路基稳定性评价指标体系。基于安全可靠度并考虑各个影响因素之间的关系,运用层次分析法和模糊数学理论确定冻土区路基稳定状况的模糊综合评价模型,提出了基于安全可靠度的用于评价多年冻土区路基稳定的模糊综合评价方法,并结合青藏公路清水河段进行实例分析,结果表明,在该段公路实施热棒处理措施前后,其路基稳定性评价系统可靠度分别为0.48和0.55,与该段公路实际运营过程中路基稳定状态相一致,即由不稳定到稳定,进一步对布设热棒后路基稳定性进行二级模糊综合评价,其评价系统得分为63.74分。
Based on the analysis and research of roadbed stability in permafrost region, 12 factors which have a great influence on roadbed stability in permafrost region are selected from five aspects of permafrost type, temperature, thickness, geomorphology units and engineering conditions Evaluation index, established the evaluation index system of stability of frozen soil roadbed. Based on the relationship between safety and reliability and taking into account the various influencing factors, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established by using AHP and fuzzy mathematics to determine the stability of subgrade in permafrost region. The safety evaluation method based on safety and reliability is proposed. The results show that the reliability of the system for evaluating the stability of the roadbed before and after the hot rod treatment is 0.48 and 0.55, respectively, and that of the section of the highway During the actual operation, the stability of subgrade is consistent, that is, from unstable to stable, the second-order fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of subgrade stability after laying hot rod is made. The evaluation system score is 63.74 points.