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文章运用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数对1980～2007年美国反倾销与制造业进口、产出、直接投资的相互关系进行了研究,证实了前者和后三者之间存在较强的关联。制造业进口与产出波动是决定美国反倾销发起的主要因素,直接投资在中长期也会对反倾销发起产生影响。反倾销在短期进口贸易抑制、产出增长、投资跨越效应明显,但在中长期这些效应逐步消失。总体看,反倾销短期产业救济效果较好,长期趋于无效。
The article uses VAR model and impulse response function to study the correlation between anti-dumping and manufacturing import, output, and direct investment in the United States from 1980 to 2007, confirming that there is a strong correlation between the former and the latter. Manufacturing import and export fluctuations are the main factors that determine the initiation of anti-dumping in the United States. Direct investment will also affect the initiation of anti-dumping in the medium and long-term. Anti-dumping has obvious effects in the short-term suppression of import trade, output growth and investment leapfrogging, but these effects have gradually disappeared in the medium and long term. On the whole, the anti-dumping short-term industry has a good relief effect and tends to be ineffective for a long time.