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为提高信号交叉口的交通安全管理水平,研究驾驶员换道行为影响因素,确定各因素影响下的换道风险率,选取可能影响变道行为的潜在变量,构建交叉口换道行为的Cox风险分析模型,并以武汉市3个交叉口调查数据为例进行实例分析。结果表明:10个因素对进口道车辆换道有显著影响,其中,车辆与目标车道前方车辆的车头间距、与目标车道后方车辆的车头间距、所在车道与目标车道车辆密度差和可供变道选择的目标车道数是危险因素;车辆与所在车道前方车辆的车头间距、车辆距停车线距离、行驶速度和所在车道相位的绿信比是保护因素。车辆处于信号灯倒计时的变道风险率高于其他时段;出租车的变道风险率高于其他车辆。
In order to improve the level of traffic safety management at signalized intersections, the influencing factors of driver lane changing behaviors are studied, the risk ratio of lane changing under various factors is determined, the potential variables that may affect lane changing behavior are selected, and the Cox risk of lane changing behaviors Analysis of the model, and Wuhan City, the three intersection survey data as an example for case analysis. The results show that 10 factors have significant influence on the lane change of imported vehicles. Among them, the distance between the front of the vehicle and the target lane, the front distance of the vehicles behind the target lane, the density difference between the current lane and the target lane, The number of target lanes selected is a risk factor; the distance between the vehicle and the lane in front of the lane, the distance between the vehicle and the parking lane, the driving speed and the green ratio of the lane in which the lane is located are protective factors. Vehicles in signal light countdown risk change lane higher than other periods; taxi change risk than other vehicles.