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利用嫩江、松花江流域的气象和水文资料 ,采用相关分析、经验正交分析等方法 ,讨论了该流域洪涝发生的规律及其与流域内降水分布的关系。结论指出 ,嫩江、松花江流域的水位变化有明显的阶段性 ,目前正处在 80年代以来洪涝较严重的阶段 ;嫩江、松花江流域汛期水位变化与全流域降水的相关远远通过 0 0 0 1的信度检验 ;嫩江流域降水异常偏多对松花江流域洪涝的影响比第二松花江的作用要大得多 ,更应引起警惕 ;1998年夏季 ,嫩江、松花江流域出现超历史纪录的特大洪水的关键原因是 ,嫩江流域 6～ 8月降水距平百分率为 6 3 2 % ,远超过历史出现的最大值。
Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of Nenjiang River and Songhua River Watershed, correlation analysis and empirical orthogonal analysis were used to discuss the regularity of the flood and the relationship with the precipitation distribution in the basin. The conclusion indicates that the water level changes in Nenjiang and Songhuajiang watersheds have obvious stages and are now at a more severe stage of floods since the 1980s. The correlation between the water level changes in the flood season in the Nenjiang River and the Songhua River Basin and the precipitation in the whole basin is far from zero 1 in the Nenjiang River Basin; the more anomalous precipitation in the Nenjiang River Basin has more influence on the flood in the Songhua River Basin than that of the second Songhua River, but more vigilance should be given; in the summer of 1998, The key reason for the extra-large flood is that the precipitation anomaly from June to August in Nenjiang River Basin was 632%, far exceeding the maximum value of history.