半年多以来,从银行体系喷薄而出的信贷几乎成了一切现象的源头。这些迹象交织成了一副经济企稳复苏的中国式山水画。这幅画看上去还未完成一半,而信贷源头却突然萎缩了。7月各类金融机构人民新增贷款从6月份的1.53亿元,直降至3559亿元,环比降幅达77%。在信贷数据公布前后,内地股市出现2009年以来的最大调整,有关经济前景的预期也出现分歧,显然,合理解读信贷巨降及其影响显得尤为必要。仔细辨识可以发现,信贷下降其实并不像看上去的那么快。首先,7月信贷规模没有大幅低于市场预期。6月份信贷再创天量以后,有关信贷规模将迅速下降的迹象日益增多,并不断得到确认。市场普遍将信贷规模预期下调到4000亿元左右;其次,从同比上看,7月新增贷款虽不如前几个月,但仍大大超出前9年当月的 For more than half a year, the credit gouged out of the banking system has almost become the source of all phenomena. These signs are intertwined into a Chinese-style landscape painting that has stabilized and recovered. The picture does not appear to have been completed in half, but the source of credit has suddenly shrunk. In July, the new loans of all kinds of financial institutions dropped from 153 million yuan in June to 355.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 77% month-on-month. Before and after the release of credit data, the mainland stock market saw its biggest readjustment since 2009 and its economic outlook was also divided. Clearly, it is necessary to properly interpret the credit slump and its impact. Careful identification shows that credit decline is not as fast as it seems. First, the size of credit in July did not fall sharply below market expectations. After the credit volume hit a new peak in June, there are increasing signs of a rapidly declining credit scale and its ongoing confirmation. The market generally reduces the expected credit scale to about 400 billion yuan. Secondly, from the same period of last year, the new loans in July, though not as good as the previous months, are still far beyond the previous 9 months