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基于海洋经济脆弱性内涵,结合“压力-状态-响应”模型(PSR)和“暴露度-敏感性-应对能力”模型,从压力、敏感性、应对能力3个方面构建海洋经济脆弱性测度评价指标体系,采用考虑了松弛变量权重的数据包络分析方法(WSBM)对2000~2011年环渤海地区17个沿海城市海洋经济脆弱性进行测算,并利用核密度估计模型分析了海洋经济脆弱性的动态演变,结果基本显示了环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性的分布格局。其中微度脆弱地区为天津市、大连市、东营市、烟台市;轻度脆弱地区为秦皇岛市、丹东市、盘锦市、葫芦岛市、威海市、日照市;中度脆弱地区为青岛市、潍坊市、滨州市;高度脆弱地区为唐山市、沧州市、锦州市、营口市。同时对环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性空间分异规律进行研究,研究成果对降低环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性具有一定理论价值和现实意义。
Based on the connotation of marine economic vulnerability, combining the “PSR” and “Exposure - Sensitivity - Coping Ability” models, this paper constructs the marine economy from three aspects: stress, sensitivity and coping ability Vulnerability measure evaluation index system, adopting the data envelopment analysis (WSBM) considering the weight of slack variables to measure the marine economic vulnerability of 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim from 2000 to 2011, and using the kernel density estimation model to analyze the ocean The dynamic evolution of economic vulnerability shows the distribution pattern of marine economic vulnerability in Bohai Rim. Among them, the micro-vulnerable areas are Tianjin, Dalian, Dongying and Yantai; the mild and vulnerable areas are Qinhuangdao, Dandong, Panjin, Huludao, Weihai and Rizhao; moderately vulnerable areas are Qingdao, Weifang, Binzhou; highly fragile areas of Tangshan City, Cangzhou City, Jinzhou City, Yingkou City. At the same time, the spatial differentiation of marine economic vulnerability in the Bohai Sea is studied. The research results have certain theoretical and practical significance to reduce the vulnerability of the marine economy in the Bohai Sea Rim.