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随着工业化和城市化的持续推进,我国的产业结构随之发生变化,对二氧化碳排放的影响也是关注的焦点。本文首先构建模型分析城市化、产业结构和碳排放的关系,并进一步使用固定效应面板数据模型和异质斜率面板模型实证分析了城市化、产业结构变化和碳排放的关系,结果表明城市化和人均碳排放之间存在倒U形关系,出现该关系的深层次机理在于产业结构的变化:在工业化后期,服务业占比上升,而服务业的能源消耗强度比工业小,因此人均碳排放会出现拐点。根据回归结果计算各省市到达人均碳排放拐点的时间,发现东部地区已经达到或几年内即将到达拐点,而中西部地区则平均需要十五年才能到达拐点。未来各省在制定减排政策时,需要充分考虑到其所处地区的城市化和工业化的阶段,采取差异化的产业引导政策。
With the continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization, the industrial structure of our country will change accordingly, and the impact on carbon dioxide emissions will also be the focus of attention. This paper first builds a model to analyze the relationship between urbanization, industrial structure and carbon emissions, and further uses the fixed-effect panel data model and the heterogeneous slope panel model to empirically analyze the relationship between urbanization, industrial structure changes and carbon emissions. The results show that urbanization and There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita carbon emissions. The underlying mechanism for this relationship lies in the changes in industrial structure: in the later stage of industrialization, the proportion of service industries has risen while that of service industries has been lower than that of industries. As a result, per capita carbon emissions Inflection point appears. According to the regression results, the time when each province reached the inflection point for carbon emissions per capita was found. It is found that the inflection point will reach the east region within a few years or an inflection point within a few years. On the average, it takes 15 years for the central and western regions to reach the inflection point. In the future, when formulating emission reduction policies, all provinces need to fully consider the stages of urbanization and industrialization in their respective regions and adopt differentiated industrial guidance policies.