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大规模灾害应对可能会遇到以往少经历或没有经历的意外情景,没有直接的经验可供借鉴。针对上述问题,考虑应急决策者行为的有限理性特征,提出大规模灾害应急准备的容错目标。首先,预设未来可能发生的意外情景,通过大规模灾害造成的人员伤亡、经济损失、社会恐慌和环境破坏四类后果计算其具有区间数形式的损益值;其次,通过应急决策者针对意外情景的损失规避心理特征,根据情景价值、权重及容错成本计算各容错目标的综合价值,根据前景值大小对容错目标进行排序,评估所期望达到的容错等级;最后,以台风暴雨灾害情景为例,验证了所述方法在具体灾害准备的应用,说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。
Large-scale disaster response may encounter unexpected or previously experienced unforeseen circumstances, there is no direct experience to learn from. In view of the above problems, considering the limited rationality of behavior of emergency decision makers, this paper proposes a fault-tolerant target of large-scale disaster emergency preparedness. First of all, it presupposes possible unexpected scenarios in the future, and calculates the profit and loss value in the form of interval number through the four kinds of consequences of human casualties, economic losses, social panic and environmental damage caused by large-scale disasters. Second, through the emergency decision makers’ According to the scenario value, weight and fault tolerance cost, the comprehensive value of each fault-tolerant target is calculated, and the fault-tolerant target is ranked according to the foreground value to evaluate the expected fault tolerance level. Finally, taking the typhoon storm disaster scenario as an example, The application of the method in disaster preparedness is verified, which shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.