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对新疆塔城地区托里县、额敏县新疆野苹果(Malus sieversii)种群采用典型抽样法中的样方法进行了群落物种分布与结构调查,并以空间(胸径,DBH)代替时间(树龄),利用生存分析理论分析了新疆野苹果种群年龄结构和静态生命表,绘制了存活曲线;并应用时间序列模型,预测了种群的发展趋势。结果表明:(1)塔城地区新疆野苹果种群的中树(2040cm)由于生理衰老、环境因素及种间竞争的影响,个体数明显下降。(2)新疆野苹果种群存活曲线呈现Deevey-Ⅰ型。动态表现为前、中期缓慢增长而且较稳定,后期衰退。(3)在未来10年、20年和30年中,2个种群均呈现幼龄个体减少而老龄个体增加的态势,老化趋势较为明显。
Species distribution and structure investigation of community species in the typical Malus sieversii population in Tacheng Prefecture, Tacheng Prefecture of Xinjiang Autonomous Region were studied. The spatial (DBH) was used instead of time (tree age) , The age structure and static life table of wild apple tree in Xinjiang were analyzed by using survival analysis theory and the survival curve was drawn. The time series model was used to predict the development trend of the population. The results showed that: (1) The number of individuals (20 40cm) due to physiological aging, environmental factors and interspecific competition, the number of individuals decreased significantly. (2) The survival curve of Xinjiang apple tree showed Deevey-Ⅰ type. Dynamic performance of the former, medium-term slow growth and more stable, post-recession. (3) In the next 10 years, 20 years and 30 years, 2 populations showed the trend of young individuals decreasing while aging individuals increasing, and the aging trend was obvious.