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采用以地震震级－频度关系和贝努利随机独立试验模型为基础建立的地震震级概率预测方法，对２００５年前中国大陆各地震带的地震危险性进行了预测．结果表明，２００５年前，中国大陆东部各地震带发生５级地震的概率一般在０．７以上，大部分在０．８以上；各地震带发生６级地震的概率一般在０．５～０．７之间；７级地震发生的概率也以山西地震带最高，可达０．０８５８．２００５年前中国大陆西部各地震带普遍具有发生６级地震的可能性（一般达０．９以上）；发生７级地震的可能性在青藏高原周缘各地震带和南天山地震带相对较高（０．７以上）．本文最后对预测结果的可信度、预测概率大小与未来地震的年发生率之间的关系进行了讨论
Based on the earthquake magnitude-frequency relationship and the Bernoulli random independent test model, the earthquake magnitude probability prediction method was established to predict the earthquake risk of all the earthquake zones in mainland of China before 2005. The results show that before 2005, the probability of a M = 5 earthquake occurring in all the eastern China seismogenic belts is generally above 0.7, most of which is above 0.8. The probability of M = 6 earthquakes in each seismic zone is generally between 0.5 and 0 .7; earthquakes of magnitude 7 also have the highest probability of occurrence in Shanxi Seismic Belt, up to 0 0 0 588. Before 2005, the seismic belts in western China generally had the possibility of a magnitude 6 earthquake (usually above 0.9) ; The possibility of an M = 7.0 earthquake is relatively high (0.7 or more) in all seismic zones around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and in the southern Tianshan seismic belt. Finally, the paper discusses the relationship between the reliability of prediction results, the prediction probability and the annual incidence of future earthquakes