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基于IPCC5 3种代表性温室气体浓度排放路径(RCP)的情景集成数据,采用VIP生态水文模型,模拟分析了黄淮海平原未来冬小麦产量、蒸散量的气候变化响应.模拟结果表明:未考虑CO2肥效时,3种典型排放路径下,冬小麦生育期都将因气温上升而缩短,其产量和蒸散量将呈下降趋势.CO2浓度增加对作物生长的有利影响强于气候变化带来的不利影响,是未来情景下冬小麦产量增加的主要原因.以RCP4.5为例,2050s黄淮海地区冬小麦平均产量将增加14.8%(无CO2肥效时产量下降2.5%),蒸散量降低2.1%.采用积温需求更高的品种将有利于冬小麦利用CO2肥效提高其产量,但耗水量将有所增加.因此,培育适应气候变化的作物品种、发展节水农业和管理技术是应对气候变化的关键.
Based on the scenario integrated data of three typical greenhouse gas emission routes (RCPs) from IPCC5, a VIP eco-hydrological model was used to simulate the climate change response of the future winter wheat yield and evapotranspiration in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The simulation results show that: , The growth of winter wheat will be shortened due to the increase of air temperature and the yield and evapotranspiration will decrease in the three kinds of typical discharge routes.The favorable effects of increasing CO2 concentration on crop growth are stronger than the adverse effects of climate change and are In the future, the main reason for the increase of winter wheat yield is as follows: Taking RCP4.5 as an example, the average winter wheat yield in Huang-Huai-Hai region in 2050s will increase by 14.8% (output will drop by 2.5% in the absence of CO2 fertilizer) and the evapotranspiration will decrease by 2.1% Of the varieties will help winter wheat use CO2 fertilizer to increase its production, but water consumption will increase, therefore, to cultivate climate-adapted crop varieties, develop water-saving agriculture and management techniques are the key to climate change.