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今年以来,百草枯一改此前产能略有过剩的局面,供给端萎缩导致供应面紧张,市场在旺盛需求推动下,价格一路飙升,42%百草枯的价格从年初的15000元(吨价,下同)站上30000元关口。笔者认为,基于以下几点判断,预计未来两年国内百草枯产能会继续下降,相对于确定增长的需求,供应紧张成为定势。百草枯后市难以回归理性,价格将上演“最后的疯狂”。第一是1745号文件出台。近年来,市场对百草枯未来需求增长不确定因素,主要集中在毒性大、容易被误食。百草枯发病率已仅次于有机磷农药,
This year, paraquat has changed slightly overcapacity in the previous production capacity. As the supply side shrinks and the supply side becomes tense, the market is soaring with the strong demand. The price of 42% paraquat starts from 15,000 yuan at the beginning of the year Same) station 30,000 yuan mark. The author believes that judging based on the following points, it is expected that domestic paraquat productivity will continue to decline in the next two years, and relative to the demand for determining growth, tight supply will become a trend. Paraquat market outlook is difficult to return to the rational, the price will be staged “the last crazy”. The first is the 1745 document issued. In recent years, uncertainties in the future growth of paraquat demand in the market are mainly concentrated in the areas of high toxicity and susceptibility to ingestion. Paraquat incidence has been second only to organophosphorus pesticides,