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为解决我国矿井普遍存在的煤层底板突水评价难题,分析地质构造、承压含水层、底板隔水层3个总指标中的8类影响因素,确定因素的等级临界值。采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各影响因素的权重及总指标权重,将因素权重引入经加权欧氏距离公式改进的模糊综合评价法(FCE)中,建立底板突水危险性评价FCE优化模型。将模型运用到山西临汾某矿,模型评价结果经Surfer软件处理,绘制成煤层底板突水评价分区图,并以一次突水实例验证模型。结果表明,用该模型评价的突水危险区域与实际突水区域相吻合。
In order to solve the problem of water inrush of coal seam floor in our country, eight kinds of influencing factors in three general indexes of geological structure, confined aquifer and floor aquifuge were analyzed to determine the level critical value of the factors. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of each influencing factor and the weight of the total index. The factor weight was introduced into the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) improved by the weighted Euclidean distance formula to establish FCE optimization model of water inrush risk assessment. Applying the model to a mine in Linfen, Shanxi Province, the results of model evaluation were processed by Surfer software, and the division map of water inrush of coal seam floor was drawn. The model was verified by an example of water inrush. The results show that the water inrush danger zone evaluated by this model agrees well with the actual water inrush region.