本文超越存货调整、产能利用等短期波动因素,注重经济运行中相对慢节奏变量,在金融周期的分析框架下,试图为判断中国经济的未来趋势提供一个系统性的解读。主要观点是,我们应该从金融周期,而不是一般经济周期的角度(比如短期的经济增长、通胀、利率)来看待近期的经济和市场的变化。 This article surpasses short-term fluctuation factors such as inventory adjustment and capacity utilization, pays attention to relatively slow rhythm variables in economic operation and attempts to provide a systematic explanation for judging the future trend of China’s economy under the framework of financial cycle analysis. The main point is that we should view recent economic and market changes from the perspective of the financial cycle rather than the general economic cycle (such as short-term economic growth, inflation and interest rates).