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本文依据政府财政收支状况与宏观经济运行情况,在政府跨期预算约束条件下,构建判断国债可持续性的度量指标,并通过预测各变量来把握未来财政状况与宏观经济环境,对现有债务做出可持续与否的判断。利用1986—2013年经济数据,对我国国债的可持续性进行实证研究,结果表明1998、1999、2002与2009年出现了不可持续的风险。进一步分解指标发现,1998、1999、2009年债务不可持续风险来自庞大的国债发行规模,2002年债务的不可持续风险来自低基本盈余现值。预测分析显示,2014—2018年我国国债可持续。
According to the state of government revenue and expenditure and macroeconomic conditions, under the constraints of government intertemporal budget, this paper constructs a measure to judge the sustainability of government bonds. By forecasting variables to grasp the future financial situation and macroeconomic environment, Debt to make the judgment of sustainability. Using the economic data from 1986 to 2013, an empirical study on the sustainability of China’s national debt shows that there is an unsustainable risk in 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2009. Further disaggregation of indicators found that the unsustainable risk of debt in 1998, 1999 and 2009 came from the huge scale of government bond issuance. The unsustainable risk of debt in 2002 came from the present value of low basic surplus. Forecast analysis shows that in 2014-2018 China’s national debt is sustainable.