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本文运用开放条件下的菲利普斯曲线模型对美国、日本、欧元区和中国四个样本国家进行实证检验,考察了全球化下国内通货变动的影响因素,探讨了全球化对国内通货变动的影响渠道。结果发现,“全球产出缺口假说”在各国基本成立。工业化国家全球产出缺口对国内通货变动的影响程度明显高于中国,原油和食品等初级产品的价格对国内物价的影响也更为显著。对待全球化背景下中国的通货变动,不仅要分析国内宏观经济均衡与波动周期,更要关注国际市场的外部冲击。国内政策工具的使用要根据国内国际经济周期的变化准确把握时机和力度,同时还要加强与其他国家的经济合作与政策协调。
This paper uses the Phillips curve model under open conditions to test the four sample countries in the United States, Japan, the euro area and China, examines the influencing factors of domestic currency fluctuations under globalization and discusses the channels of globalization affecting domestic currency movements . The results showed that “the global output gap hypothesis” basically established in all countries. The impact of the global output gap in industrialized countries on domestic currency movements was significantly higher than that in China. The prices of primary products such as crude oil and food also had a more pronounced impact on domestic prices. Treating China’s currency fluctuations in the context of globalization not only analyzes the cycle of domestic macroeconomic equilibrium and volatility, but also pays attention to the external shocks in the international market. The use of domestic policy tools should accurately grasp the timing and intensity according to changes in the domestic and international economic cycles, and at the same time, strengthen the coordination of economic cooperation and policies with other countries.