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孔雀河流域是典型的干旱内陆河流域,水资源是其经济发展和生态环境建设最主要的制约因素。该文基于现状年2005年的社会经济数据,运用定额法预测了2015年研究区的各行业需水量,进而确定水资源供需平衡关系。研究表明:(1)到2015年,流域总需水量及工业、农业、生活、生态环境的需水量均呈明显的增加趋势,其中工业需水量的增加比例达到了近90%,增加额为2.865亿m3,而相比2005年农业灌溉用水增加了2.93亿m3,农业灌溉用水量增加了近35.8%,生态用水增加约0.5亿m3。(2)到2015年流域农业用水占水资源总量的61%以上,与2005年相比减少9%,工业需水占水资源总量的18%,增幅明显,而生态需水占19%,与2005年相比减少6个百分点。(3)流域2015年供需差额将达5.701亿m3,缺水程度为30.5%,供需矛盾将进一步激化。为此,研究提出了解决该区域水资源供需矛盾的对策和建议,为区域水资源的合理开发和优化配置以及社会经济的可持续发展提供决策参考。
The peacock river basin is a typical arid inland river basin. Water resources are the most important constraints in its economic development and ecological environment construction. Based on the social and economic data of 2005 in current year, this paper predicts the demand of each industry in 2015 by the quota method, and then determines the balance between water supply and demand. The research shows that: (1) The total water demand of the basin and the water demand of industry, agriculture, living and ecological environment all show an obvious increase trend by 2015, of which, the proportion of industrial water demand has increased by nearly 90%, and the increase amount is 2.865 Compared with 2005, agricultural irrigation water increased by 293 million m3, agricultural irrigation water increased by nearly 35.8% and ecological water consumption increased by about 50 million m3. (2) By 2015, agricultural water use in the basin will account for more than 61% of the total water resources, a 9% decrease compared with 2005, and industrial water demand will account for 18% of the total water resources, an obvious increase, with ecological water demand accounting for 19% , A decrease of 6 percentage points from 2005. (3) Supply and demand balance in the basin will reach 570.1 million m3 in 2015, with a water shortage of 30.5%. The contradiction between supply and demand will be further intensified. Therefore, the countermeasures and suggestions for solving the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in this area are put forward, which will provide reference for decision-making in the rational development and optimal allocation of regional water resources and the sustainable development of social economy.