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基于湖南省1950-2013年农业水灾资料,运用数理统计、移动平均法等方法,分析了农业水灾的演变特征。结果表明,近64年来以农业轻灾频率最高,重灾和特大水灾多发生在1982-2005年间,约4-5年一次。农业受灾率异常指数于1955-1963年、1965-1968年、1970-1979年、2004-2013年出现4个低谷值,分别为-0.773 6、-0.751 9、-0.817 2、-0.793 7;于1980-1984年、1987-1999年、2001-2004年出现3个高峰值,分别为0.845 0、2.150 4、2.316 5。农业成灾率异常指数于1950-1953年、1955-1987年、1988-1990年、1996-1998年、2000-2001年、2008-2013年出现6个低谷值,分别为-0.657 1、-0.747 8、-0.262 3、-0.600 9、-0.324 8、-0.327 6;于1953-1955年、1987-1989年、1990-1995年、1996-1998年、2001-2004年出现5个高峰值,分别为0.757 8、1.888 2、1.100 7、2.730 1、2.862 4。2005至2013年受灾率和成灾率两异常指数呈同步下降趋势。并运用最优气候均态模型预测结果显示,2018年和2023年可能发生农业重水灾,其余年份的受灾和成灾情况均为轻灾。
Based on the data of agricultural floods in Hunan Province from 1950 to 2013, the evolution characteristics of agricultural floods were analyzed by means of mathematical statistics and moving average method. The results show that in the past 64 years, the highest frequency of agricultural disasters, heavy disasters and major floods occurred mostly in 1982-2005, about 4-5 years. The anomaly index of agricultural disaster rate showed four trough values from 1955 to 1963, from 1965 to 1968, from 1970 to 1979 and from 2004 to 2013, which were -0.773 6, -0.751 9, -0.817 2 and -0.793 7 respectively. From 1980 to 1984, from 1987 to 1999, there were three peaks in 2001-2004, which were 0.845 0, 2.150 4 and 2.316 5 respectively. The anomaly index of agricultural disaster rate showed six low values in 1950-1953, 1955-1987, 1988-1990, 1996-1998, 2000-2001 and 2008-2013, respectively -0.657 1 and -0.747 8, -0.262 3, -0.600 9, -0.324 8, -0.327 6; Five peak values appeared in 1953-1955, 1987-1989, 1990-1995, 1996-1998 and 2001-2004, respectively 0.757 8,1.888 2,1.100 7,2.730 1,2.862 4. From 2005 to 2013, the two anomaly indexes of disaster-hit rate and disaster-hit rate showed a downward trend. The results of the prediction using the optimal climate mean model show that severe floods may occur in 2018 and 2023, and the rest of the year is a minor disaster.