Presented in this paper is a mathematical model to calculate the probability of the sediment incipient motion, in which the effects of the fluctuating pressure and the seepage are considered. The instantaneous bed shear velocity and the pressure gradient on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow are obtained according to the PIV measurements. It is found that the instantaneous pressure gradient on the bed obeys normal distribution. The probability of the sediment incipient motion on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow is given by the mathematical model. The predicted results agree well with the experiment in the region downstream of the reattachment point while a large discrepancy between the theory and experiment is seen in the region near the reattachment point. The possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.