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Abstract： According to the definition of migrating climate change given by IPCC， climate change migration refers to people’s reducing greenhouse gas emissions to intervene in the climate system. Therefore， increasingly people choose to cut down on carbon emissions in order to fight against global warming.
Keyword： Nonlinear Least Square Method； Climate Change
I Modeling for the Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Temperature
We collect the data on global temperature and Co2 emissions in order to find the relationship between them. The data is from Center of Oak Ridge National Laboratory （CDIAC）
As is shown in the figure above， global temperature and CO2 emissions are both on the rise and have a high correlation between each other.
Based on the law of the development of industry， we suppose that the increasing rate of CO2 emission will slow down because the industry will be well developed in the future and countries will take measures to reduce the emission. The trend of CO2 emission fits logistic function[7]. Therefore， we build a model on carbon emission：
where：
x is the increment of carbon emission；
c is the maximum of carbon emission；
a is the indeterminate constant；
t is the specific year.
Solve the equation above， we can get：
where：
x0 is the initial increment of carbon emission.
In order to simplify the function， we let and can get a new equation after simplification：
At last， we adopt Nonlinear Least Square Method （NLS） and get the parameter and with the objective function below：
where：
Y（t） is the predicted value；
y（t） is the actual value.
II Modeling for the Relationship
The atmosphere keeps the Earth warm， which matches well with the characteristic of black-body radiation. Hence， we suppose that the radiation of Earth is black-body radiation. Based on the law of Stefan-Boltzmann， we can calculate the heat of Earth radiation per unit area. The equation is shown as follows：
where：
is the coefficient of blackbody radiation；
is Stefan-Boltzmann constant；
is the temperature.
About 4/5 of the energy radiated by the Earth is absorbed by the atmosphere.
III Conclusion
U.S.A.and Japan are selected as developed countries whilst China and India are selected as developing countries for the analysis. we find that U.S.A.， Japan， India and China are big emitter countries. They contributed 10% of global carbon emissions. The result of our model matches well with the actual data， which proves that our model performs well.
Reference：
[1] Allen M R， Frame D J， Huntingford C， et al. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne[J]. Nature， 2009， 458（7242）：1163-6.
Keyword： Nonlinear Least Square Method； Climate Change
I Modeling for the Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Temperature
We collect the data on global temperature and Co2 emissions in order to find the relationship between them. The data is from Center of Oak Ridge National Laboratory （CDIAC）
As is shown in the figure above， global temperature and CO2 emissions are both on the rise and have a high correlation between each other.
Based on the law of the development of industry， we suppose that the increasing rate of CO2 emission will slow down because the industry will be well developed in the future and countries will take measures to reduce the emission. The trend of CO2 emission fits logistic function[7]. Therefore， we build a model on carbon emission：
where：
x is the increment of carbon emission；
c is the maximum of carbon emission；
a is the indeterminate constant；
t is the specific year.
Solve the equation above， we can get：
where：
x0 is the initial increment of carbon emission.
In order to simplify the function， we let and can get a new equation after simplification：
At last， we adopt Nonlinear Least Square Method （NLS） and get the parameter and with the objective function below：
where：
Y（t） is the predicted value；
y（t） is the actual value.
II Modeling for the Relationship
The atmosphere keeps the Earth warm， which matches well with the characteristic of black-body radiation. Hence， we suppose that the radiation of Earth is black-body radiation. Based on the law of Stefan-Boltzmann， we can calculate the heat of Earth radiation per unit area. The equation is shown as follows：
where：
is the coefficient of blackbody radiation；
is Stefan-Boltzmann constant；
is the temperature.
About 4/5 of the energy radiated by the Earth is absorbed by the atmosphere.
III Conclusion
U.S.A.and Japan are selected as developed countries whilst China and India are selected as developing countries for the analysis. we find that U.S.A.， Japan， India and China are big emitter countries. They contributed 10% of global carbon emissions. The result of our model matches well with the actual data， which proves that our model performs well.
Reference：
[1] Allen M R， Frame D J， Huntingford C， et al. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne[J]. Nature， 2009， 458（7242）：1163-6.