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对员工不安全行为的定量分析是理解安全生产事故复杂系统的基础。班组或群体的集体行为往往表现为复杂有序,具有一定的稳定性和适应性;而个体行为尽管有企业制度和纪律的约束,却仍有很大的随机性。为了探究企业员工不安全行为的动力学规律,跟踪观察某大型企业作业员工930 d,将员工相继不安全行为的发生看作排队理论中具有特定时间序列的随机过程。结果表明,就员工个体而言,其不安全行为的间隔时间分布可以用幂律函数近似描述,且幂指数和员工的活跃程度正相关;并进一步分析出企业员工相继不安全行为具有以艾宾浩斯遗忘曲线为特点的“阵发”性;从幂指数角度分析了员工日常作业中的不安全行为的优劣特点,比较了人类活动中的各种随机行为与员工在企业生产中的不安全行为在时间统计上的特性。这表明企业制定安全管理制度及实施安全培训工作都应从人类普遍问题和员工个体特点两方面入手。
The quantitative analysis of employee unsafe behavior is the basis for understanding the complex system of work safety accidents. The collective behavior of a group or group tends to be complex and orderly with a certain degree of stability and adaptability. However, individual behavior is still very random, despite the constraints of the enterprise system and discipline. In order to explore the dynamics of employee unsafe behavior, we track and observe 930 days of employees in a large-scale enterprise and regard the occurrence of employee unsafe behavior as a random process with specific time series in queuing theory. The results show that in the case of individual employees, the interval time distribution of unsafe behavior can be approximated by a power law function, and the power exponent is positively correlated with the employee’s activity level. Furthermore, it is further analyzed that the employees’ Hough’s forgetting curve is characterized by “paroxysm”; from the perspective of exponential index, the advantages and disadvantages of unsafe behavior of employees in daily operations are analyzed, and various random behaviors in human activities and employees are compared in the production of enterprises The unsafe behavior of the statistical characteristics of time. This shows that enterprises should set safety management system and carry out safety training both from the general human problems and the individual characteristics of employees.