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为考察燃油税改革带来的柴油价格变化、居民收入变化对中国人均柴油需求的可能影响,该文应用1999年至2007年中国分地区年度柴油价格及其他宏观数据,使用滞后内生变量模型对中国柴油需求弹性进行了计量经济学的估计。结果表明:中国人均柴油需求的短期价格弹性为-0.33、收入弹性为0.65;长期价格弹性为-0.86、收入弹性为1.70。该研究发现短期柴油需求弹性较长期低,柴油税对提高柴油使用效率的激励效率在短期较低,短期与长期的需求弹性估计与西方国家相似,但收入弹性高于西方国家估计值,另外长期效应大于短期效应,说明中国人均柴油需求具有其他国家类似的较强的粘滞性。
In order to investigate the possible influence of diesel price changes and residents’ income changes on the per capita diesel demand caused by the fuel tax reform in China, this paper uses the annual diesel prices and other macroeconomic data from 1999 to 2007 in China by using the lagged endogenous variable model China’s diesel demand elasticity has been econometric estimates. The results show that the short-term price elasticity of per capita diesel oil demand in China is -0.33, the income elasticity is 0.65, the long-term price elasticity is -0.86 and the income elasticity is 1.70. The study finds that demand elasticity of short-term diesel is lower than that of long-term diesel. Incentive efficiency of diesel tax on improving diesel efficiency is lower in the short term. Demand elasticity of short-term and long-term is estimated to be similar to western countries but income elasticity is higher than that of western countries. The effect is greater than the short-term effect, indicating that China’s per capita diesel demand has similar strong viscosities in other countries.