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本文根据2001～2009年肉鸡产业链上中下游各个环节产品价格的月度数据,使用Johansen模型、VEC模型等来研究肉鸡产业链上中下游产品价格之间的长期协整关系和短期内的变动关系,并进行了Granger因果关系检验。结果表明:肉鸡产业链价格存在长期协整关系,但是鸡肉价格与活鸡价格、肉鸡饲料价格和肉雏鸡价格变动幅度并不一致。短期内,鸡肉的价格变动受到滞后一期的价格影响最为显著,其次是肉雏鸡价格和活鸡价格。最后,提出了肉品产业链价格调控的政策建议。
Based on the monthly data of the product prices in all links of the middle and lower reaches of the chicken industry chain from 2001 to 2009, the paper uses the Johansen model and the VEC model to study the long-term cointegration relationship and short-term changes between the prices of the middle and lower reaches of the broiler industry chain , And conducted a Granger causality test. The results showed that there was a long-term cointegration relationship in the price chain of broiler chickens, but the price of chickens did not change with the price of live chickens, broiler feed prices and broiler chickens. In the short term, the price changes in chicken are most significantly affected by the lagged prices, followed by the prices of broiler chickens and live chickens. Finally, put forward policy suggestions on the price control of meat industry chain.