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本文在考虑货币供应与产业政策环境的情况下,研究猪肉价格的供求决定机制。以人均猪肉供应量、生猪与猪肉价格、居民收入作为内生变量,流动性过剩和产业政策作为外生变量,运用协整理论分析猪肉价格的决定机制,并基于SVAR模型下的脉冲响应函数和方差分解度量猪肉价格的动态效应。结果表明,样本期居民收入增长带来了猪肉价格的微弱下降,货币对生猪与猪肉价格的影响非中性,生猪价格长期引导猪肉价格与供应,生猪生产扶持政策对产业发展发挥了一定的积极作用,而货币的超经济发行不利于猪肉价格与供应。因此,加强猪肉品牌建设,打通生猪屠宰购销环节,加强生猪产销对接管理和生猪价格预警,控制货币的过度供应,将有助于稳定猪肉价格、提高居民猪肉消费福利和养殖户收入。
In this paper, considering the money supply and industrial policy environment, the paper studies the mechanism of supply and demand of pork price. Based on covariance theory, the decision-making mechanism of pork price was established based on the impulse response function of SVAR model and the implicit response function of SVAR model. The results showed that pork price per pig, pork price and resident income as endogenous variables, excess liquidity and industrial policy as exogenous variables. Variance decomposition measures the dynamic effect of pork price. The results showed that the increase of resident income during the sample period brought a slight decrease of pork price, the influence of currency on the price of pigs and pork was not neutral, the price of pigs guided the price and supply of pigs for a long time, and the pig production support policy played a positive role in industrial development Role, while the super-economic issue of money is not conducive to pork prices and supply. Therefore, strengthening the pork brand building, opening up links in the purchase and sale of live pig slaughtering, strengthening the management of hog production and marketing and hog price warning, and controlling the excessive supply of money will help stabilize the pork price and increase residents ’pork consumption welfare and farmers’ income.